Resolution criteria

OpenAI has not officially announced an IPO, but the market resolves YES if OpenAI lists on Nasdaq on or before December 31, 2026. Resolution will be confirmed via Nasdaq's official listing announcements at https://www.nasdaq.com/. If OpenAI lists on a different exchange (NYSE, etc.) or after December 31, 2026, the market resolves NO.

Background

Every signal from the company and its investors points to a filing in the second half of 2026, with a potential listing in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. OpenAI has surpassed $25 billion in annualized revenue, closed the largest private funding round in history at $110 billion, and is now in active discussions with Wall Street banks about a public listing that could value it near $1 trillion. SoftBank secured a $40 billion unsecured bridge loan with a 12-month term, arranged by JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Mizuho, SMBC, and MUFG. The loan's purpose is explicitly to fund SoftBank's $30 billion OpenAI commitment. An unsecured 12-month term means these banks believe SoftBank will have a clear liquidity event within that window. The most obvious liquidity event is an OpenAI IPO that allows SoftBank to either refinance against publicly traded shares or partially exit its position. Banks do not extend $40 billion in unsecured credit on hope alone; they are positioning themselves as lead underwriters for the offering.

Considerations

Current investors are concerned about the company's cash flow as it continues to spend billions training its models and building out its AI infrastructure. Despite ChatGPT's popularity and cultural cache, loss-making OpenAI is burning through piles of cash. The company is currently valued at $500 billion, it has said it doesn't expect to turn a profit until 2030. $35 billion of Amazon's investment could be contingent on the company either achieving AGI or making its IPO by the end of the year, which creates financial pressure for a 2026 listing but also introduces execution risk.

This description was generated by AI.