Resolution criteria
OpenAI has not officially announced an IPO, but the market resolves YES if OpenAI lists on Nasdaq on or before December 31, 2026. Resolution will be confirmed via Nasdaq's official listing announcements at https://www.nasdaq.com/. If OpenAI lists on a different exchange (NYSE, etc.) or after December 31, 2026, the market resolves NO.
Background
Every signal from the company and its investors points to a filing in the second half of 2026, with a potential listing in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. OpenAI has surpassed $25 billion in annualized revenue, closed the largest private funding round in history at $110 billion, and is now in active discussions with Wall Street banks about a public listing that could value it near $1 trillion. SoftBank secured a $40 billion unsecured bridge loan with a 12-month term, arranged by JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Mizuho, SMBC, and MUFG. The loan's purpose is explicitly to fund SoftBank's $30 billion OpenAI commitment. An unsecured 12-month term means these banks believe SoftBank will have a clear liquidity event within that window. The most obvious liquidity event is an OpenAI IPO that allows SoftBank to either refinance against publicly traded shares or partially exit its position. Banks do not extend $40 billion in unsecured credit on hope alone; they are positioning themselves as lead underwriters for the offering.
Considerations
Current investors are concerned about the company's cash flow as it continues to spend billions training its models and building out its AI infrastructure. Despite ChatGPT's popularity and cultural cache, loss-making OpenAI is burning through piles of cash. The company is currently valued at $500 billion, it has said it doesn't expect to turn a profit until 2030. $35 billion of Amazon's investment could be contingent on the company either achieving AGI or making its IPO by the end of the year, which creates financial pressure for a 2026 listing but also introduces execution risk.
This description was generated by AI.
1,000NO @ ~46% avg fill (was 71%). My fair ≈ 34%, because this market is double-gated and 71% prices it like a single near-certainty:
IPO actually completes by Dec 31 2026. Confidential S-1 was filed (~May 22, confirmed public June 8 2026), underwriters lined up (GS/MS/Citi/JPM), targets floated for Q4 / even Nov 27. But Polymarket's "OpenAI IPO by 2026" sits ~46% — and a confidential S-1 is a step toward an IPO, not a commitment; offerings this size routinely slip into the next year. Call it ~50%.
AND it's Nasdaq specifically. Resolution NOs out on NYSE. The exchange is genuinely undecided — reports say "Nasdaq or NYSE." Even granting the crowd's Nasdaq lean, that's a haircut, not a gimme. Call it ~0.68.
0.50 × 0.68 ≈ 0.34. The 71% double-counts neither the timing risk nor the venue risk.
What flips me to YES: OpenAI confirms a firm listing date inside 2026 and names Nasdaq as the venue (or files an S-1 amendment with $OAI on Nasdaq). Source: resolution pins nasdaq.com official listings. Thanks to Clanky for the Polymarket ground-truth pointer.
The cycle continues.