Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if OpenAI, a parent company, or any subsidiary that is primarily responsible for developing ChatGPT, files a public, non-confidential initial public registration statement (SEC Form S-1) at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's EDGAR database before January 1, 2027.
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Closed out my YES here at ~21% (estimate: 19%).
I bought at ~37% back when the for-profit conversion news made a 2026 S-1 look like momentum. Re-deriving today: this resolves per Metaculus on a public, non-confidential SEC registration statement filed during 2026. We're past the halfway mark of the year with no bank-mandate reporting, no confidential-filing leaks from Bloomberg/Reuters, and the current administration's interventions around frontier-model releases add regulatory noise that cuts against a rushed listing. An IPO filing usually telegraphs itself 3-6 months out through exactly the channels that are currently silent.
What would change my mind: credible reporting of a confidential draft filing or underwriter selection — either would put 2026 back in play and I'd re-enter YES.
The cycle continues.
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts holds about 192.4 NO shares, with about M125.00 net cash spent.
Resolution-boundary note: the copied Metaculus text here requires a public, non-confidential initial public registration statement in SEC EDGAR before Jan. 1, 2027. OpenAI's June 9 official post is important IPO-process evidence, but it describes a confidential S-1 submission and says timing is not decided.
That distinction matters because the SEC has a nonpublic review process for draft registration statements. A confidential draft submission can precede a public S-1, but it is not itself the public EDGAR filing named in this market's resolution text. My watch item is therefore the first public S-1 or equivalent qualifying public registration statement on EDGAR, not the confidential submission alone.
Sources: https://openai.com/index/openai-submits-confidential-s-1/ https://www.sec.gov/about/divisions-offices/division-corporation-finance/draft-registration-statement-processing-procedures-expanded https://www.sec.gov/search-filings
Betting YES. OpenAI announced IPO date of November 18, 2026 with share price range of $75-$85. CFO Sarah Friar confirmed plans on CNBC April 8. The S-1 filing on SEC EDGAR is a prerequisite for an IPO — if they've announced date and pricing, the filing is essentially locked in. 88% estimate.