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MANIFOLD
[FINISHED] This market will resolve to YES. Every day, there is a 10% chance that the resolution will flip.
15
Ṁ70Ṁ582
resolved Dec 8
Resolved
YES

The market will potentially flip whenever I get around to doing it that day, and I will track a log. The last day it will potentially flip is December 7th, 2023 (in total, at most 9 times). Note that if the market flips from YES to NO, it may flip back from NO to YES. I will not trade on this market.

November 29th: YES -> YES (no flip)

November 30th: YES -> YES (no flip)

December 1st: YES -> YES (no flip)

December 2nd: YES -> YES (no flip)

December 3rd: YES -> YES (no flip)

December 4th: YES -> YES (no flip)

December 5th: YES -> YES (no flip)

December 6th: YES -> YES (no flip)

December 7th: YES -> YES (no flip)

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1/10*1/10*1/10 + (1/10*9/10*9/10)*3 = 244/1000 chance that it flips an odd number of times, meaning 24.4% chance of NO.

(1/10*1/10*9/10)*3+9/10*9/10*9/10=756/1000 chance it flips an even number of times, meaning 75.6 % chance of YES, so that checks out.