In November 2022, Seattle's general election will include a ballot initiative (Initiative 134) to switch several city elected positions to use approval voting during their primaries. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/initiative-for-approval-voting-that-would-change-seattle-elections-is-headed-toward-november-ballot/ Now that Initiative 134 has enough signatures, it could be passed by the City Council, or it could be passed by getting enough votes in the November election. Will Initiative 134 pass? NOTES: - If 134 gets passed by the city council, this resolves YES. - If some similar/equivalent approval voting legislation passes, but Initiative 134 itself does not, this resolves NO. - If we somehow reach the market end date without a clear outcome, I'll resolve NO. Jul 11, 4:22pm: If the Council rejects I-134 and puts an alternative on the ballot, and the alternative is enacted but not the original (even if the alternative is very similar), I will resolve NO.
Close date updated to 2022-11-28 11:31 am
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,798 | |
| 2 | Ṁ564 | |
| 3 | Ṁ549 | |
| 4 | Ṁ525 | |
| 5 | Ṁ106 |
People are also trading
Results are certified, apparently. Guess they're as official as they'll ever get!
Closed the market because at this point I think the correct probability is <1%, but I have no way of adjusting the AMM (partially funded by me) without tying up enormous amounts of capital. Another way to put this: the election results seem pretty clear, and I'm not interested in paying (via AMM subsidy) for further "information" that's just telling me what I already know. Especially since the lack of trading suggests there are no traders with further information to offer.
I am holding off on resolving until the state certifies the election results, which is due to happen by Dec 8.
