Will Seattle's approval voting initiative pass?
40
165
555
resolved Dec 10
Resolved
NO

In November 2022, Seattle's general election will include a ballot initiative (Initiative 134) to switch several city elected positions to use approval voting during their primaries. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/initiative-for-approval-voting-that-would-change-seattle-elections-is-headed-toward-november-ballot/ Now that Initiative 134 has enough signatures, it could be passed by the City Council, or it could be passed by getting enough votes in the November election. Will Initiative 134 pass? NOTES: - If 134 gets passed by the city council, this resolves YES. - If some similar/equivalent approval voting legislation passes, but Initiative 134 itself does not, this resolves NO. - If we somehow reach the market end date without a clear outcome, I'll resolve NO. Jul 11, 4:22pm: If the Council rejects I-134 and puts an alternative on the ballot, and the alternative is enacted but not the original (even if the alternative is very similar), I will resolve NO.

Close date updated to 2022-11-28 11:31 am

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predicted NO
predicted NO

Closed the market because at this point I think the correct probability is <1%, but I have no way of adjusting the AMM (partially funded by me) without tying up enormous amounts of capital. Another way to put this: the election results seem pretty clear, and I'm not interested in paying (via AMM subsidy) for further "information" that's just telling me what I already know. Especially since the lack of trading suggests there are no traders with further information to offer.

I am holding off on resolving until the state certifies the election results, which is due to happen by Dec 8.

bought Ṁ35 of YES
“The Seattle City Council has voted 7-2 to send both “approval voting” and “ranked choice voting” to the ballot in November.”
https://twitter.com/FairVoteWA/status/1545555901095940096 Apparently FairVoteWA is trying to get the City Council to take the "propose an alternative" route and propose ranked-choice voting instead.
sold Ṁ64 of NO
We may be in the world where the City Council rejects the initiative and proposes an alternative. Surprisingly, when that happens, both initiatives don't get separately voted on in the election! Instead, per https://casetext.com/statute/revised-code-of-washington/title-29a-elections/chapter-29a72-state-initiative-and-referendum/section-29a72050-ballot-title-formulation-ballot-display (section 4) and https://casetext.com/case/in-re-ballot-title-appeal-of-city-of-seattle-initiatives-107-1-10-v-city-of-seattle , the ballot question is structured like "I-134 proposes X but the legislature has proposed an alternative Y. Should either of these pass? (Y/N) If Yes, which one? (X/Y)" In this case, if a majority vote "Y" but then vote for the City Council alternative, I intend to resolve NO, even if the Council alternative is also approval voting. But, before I write that into the description, any arguments that I should do something different?
bought Ṁ5 of NO
hedge
bought Ṁ30 of NO
Smells like wishful thinking.
bought Ṁ42 of YES
new market for the margins it passes/fails! https://manifold.markets/parkerfriedland/what-percentage-of-voters-will-supp
didn't mean to buy no shares earlier. i just tried to add liquidity (thinking that maybe that will make the market more popular) and then decided to un-add liquidity and doing that makes you buy no shares for reasons
predicted NO
(Also fingers crossed that this passes!)
bought Ṁ1 of NO
Suggestion: extend the market end date if we don't learn the outcome by then.
sold Ṁ34 of NO
@dreev Can you describe a world of nontrivial probability where it's "interesting" from a forecasting standpoint to wait beyond 1 Jan 2023 to resolve this market? It seems like e.g. "will Seattle's government use approval voting literally ever" is asking a very different question, at the very least.
predicted NO
@WilliamEhlhardt oh, yeah, i think you're right. never mind!
predicted NO
I was thinking of like the case where they need extra time to count all the votes but sounds like you've picked a date far enough out that that's negligible