Background
IP17 is a voter initiative that proposes creating an annual rebate for every Oregonian (including children). The rebate would be funded by increasing the minimum tax rate for Oregon corporations with $25 million+ in sales from less than 1% to 3%. The taxed amount would be made availyas either a tax credit or a cash payment and be evenly divided among all Oregon residents who have resided in Oregon for at least 200 days provided the amount is greater than $25. (If the amount is less then $25/residents, the taxes amount is redistributed to social programs). The rebate would not be taxable, means-tested, or affect eligibility for income-based benefits.
Supporters of the measure estimate that the rebate amount would be ~$750 / resident the first year.
[0] Oregon Rebate Website
[1] IP17 Full Text
See also: Oregon 2024 Election Dashboard
Market Resolution
This is a forecasting market. Market closes when polls close (8 PM PST)
The market will resolve to one answer based on
If the ballot measure passes or fails
The margin by which it passes or fails
Margin will be determined by the percentage of voters that were for or against the measure.
(Majority Voters / Total Votes) = Margin
The market will resolve N/A if:
The ballot measure is withdrawn
The market will resolve based on certified results from the Oregon Secretary of State. Market closes on 5 Nov 2024; market resolution may be delayed until data is released. Oregon Law requires that any ballot measure receive an affirmative majority so in case of a 50/50 tie, the measure will have failed. [0]
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Disclaimer
I do not bet on markets I create in order to avoid motivated reasoning. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log.