Will I get COVID a second time in 2022?
➕
Plus
16
Ṁ2031
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Will resolve YES if I test positive on any high-specificity COVID test (most likely to be a rapid antigen or PCR test) before market close. Otherwise, NO.

Ask forecast-relevant questions in the comments, and I will make a good faith effort to answer them.

If you email your question privately to williamehlhardt@gmail.com, I will answer your question privately, giving you a chance to trade on your inside scoop. However, I will also publish the question and answer as a comment a few days later.

Previously: https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-i-get-covid-in-2022-67b0e9b79c1d

Oct 10, 5:12am: Note that I currently take zero COVID precautions day-to-day. Among other things, I go out dancing indoors with strangers about once a week. I do intend to get the bivalent booster at most 2 months from now.

Close date updated to 2022-12-29 1:59 am

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predicted NO

Took one final test, and it's negative.

predicted NO

I'm sniffly enough that I clearly have something. I just took a Flowflex rapid antigen test, though, and it's negative.

predicted NO

Heading to Oakland/SF tomorrow, leaving Tuesday. Currently the Alameda County COVID wastewater data looks like this:

predicted NO

Going to the NYC Rationalist Megameetup + Secular Solstice on Dec 10, and then Bay Area Solstice on Dec 17. Trade accordingly!

predicted NO

Moderna bivalent booster received!

predicted NO

Planning to get the bivalent booster October 18.

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