Will I get COVID in 2022?
21
1.1kṀ572resolved Aug 18
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve YES if I test positive on any high-specificity COVID test (most likely to be a rapid antigen or PCR test) before market close. Otherwise, NO.
Ask forecast-relevant questions in the comments, and I will make a good faith effort to answer them.
If you email your question privately to williamehlhardt@gmail.com, I will answer your question privately, giving you a chance to trade on your inside scoop. However, I will also publish the question and answer as a comment a few days later.
Jun 21, 2:42am: I take about one trip every other month, by plane, within the continental United States. I wear this respirator with P100 filters through the airport and (overdoing it, I know) on the plane itself: https://smile.amazon.com/gp/product/B004IVYSDW . Note that TSA makes me take off the mask for the ID check and sometimes makes me switch to an N95 while going through the millimeter scanner.
I socialize maskless and indoors freely with vaccinated people, including in large groups. I try to avoid spending substantial time indoors with strangers of unknown vaccination status, and wear an N95 or better when I do. I take pretty much no precautions outdoors.
I have the following COVID vaccinations:
1. Pfizer 4 April 2021
2. Pfizer 27 April 2021
3. Pfizer 10 October 2021
4. Moderna 26 April 2022
and I expect to get vaccinated again in the fall, since my last booster didn't cause significant problems.
Jun 21, 3:14pm: I will resolve early if YES, obviously.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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