Will resolve YES if I test positive on any high-specificity COVID test (most likely to be a rapid antigen or PCR test) before market close. Otherwise, NO.
Ask forecast-relevant questions in the comments, and I will make a good faith effort to answer them.
If you email your question privately to williamehlhardt@gmail.com, I will answer your question privately, giving you a chance to trade on your inside scoop. However, I will also publish the question and answer as a comment a few days later.
Previously: https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-i-get-covid-in-2022-67b0e9b79c1d
Oct 10, 5:12am: Note that I currently take zero COVID precautions day-to-day. Among other things, I go out dancing indoors with strangers about once a week. I do intend to get the bivalent booster at most 2 months from now.
Close date updated to 2022-12-29 1:59 am
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Heading to Oakland/SF tomorrow, leaving Tuesday. Currently the Alameda County COVID wastewater data looks like this:
