Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, the United States under the presidential administration of Donald Trump officially annexes any portion of Brazilian territory or conducts unauthorized military action against or within Brazil.

Specifically:

• Annexation is defined as the United States officially claiming sovereignty, annexing, or establishing a formal protectorate over any portion of Brazil's internationally recognized territory, codified by a U.S. executive order, presidential proclamation, federal law, or treaty signed by Donald Trump.

• Military Action is defined as a kinetic military operation (including but not limited to airstrikes, drone strikes, missile launches, naval blockades, or ground troop incursions) conducted by the United States Armed Forces within Brazil’s internationally recognized land borders, territorial waters, or airspace.

• To qualify, the military action must be directed against targets (including state forces, infrastructure, or local non-state actors/gangs) without the explicit consent or written invitation of the internationally recognized federal government of Brazil.

• The action must be officially acknowledged by the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House, the Brazilian government, or confirmed by at least two major independent news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, El País).

This market resolves to NO if no such annexation or military action occurs by the deadline, or if any U.S. military presence in Brazil during this timeframe is limited to routine joint training exercises, humanitarian aid, disaster relief, embassy/consulate security, or operations explicitly authorized in writing by the Brazilian federal government.

If Donald Trump is no longer President of the United States at the time of the event, any action taken by a subsequent administration will not count toward a YES resolution unless Donald Trump is serving as the active President or Commander-in-Chief authorizing the action.

Background

Since Donald Trump's return to the presidency, diplomatic and trade relations between the United States and Brazil have become increasingly strained. In July 2025, the Trump administration declared a national emergency and imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil, citing concerns over the domestic prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro and the regulatory targeting of U.S. social media platforms. These trade frictions expanded with proposed USTR tariffs in mid-2026 over digital trade and anti-corruption enforcement.

Concurrently, the U.S. has adopted a more assertive military posture in the region, including kinetic strikes against transnational gang elements in neighboring Venezuela and the classification of Brazilian organized crime groups, such as the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho, as terrorist organizations. This has fueled speculation among geopolitical analysts regarding the potential scope of future unilateral U.S. military operations in South America.

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