Here is a revised draft that eliminates the potential ambiguities regarding international waters, proxy forces, and other U.S. agencies, while keeping the core conditions of your original market intact.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC, the United States military or the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) conducts a deliberate kinetic action against the sovereign territory, airspace, or territorial waters of Brazil, or against Brazilian state/military assets operating in international domains.

• "Kinetic action" is defined as the active, deliberate use of lethal or physically destructive force. Examples include airstrikes, drone strikes, missile strikes, naval bombardments, or ground combat engagements.

• Covert & Proxy Actions: The action must be carried out directly by U.S. military personnel, CIA operatives, or private military companies (PMCs) actively contracted and directed by these entities. Actions carried out by Brazilian or foreign proxy forces that are merely funded, armed, or advised by the U.S. do not count.

• Exclusions: * Non-kinetic operations—such as economic sanctions, Section 301 tariffs, cyber operations, diplomatic expulsions, or non-lethal covert intelligence gathering—do not count.

  • Accidental military incidents (e.g., a training accident or unintentional airspace violation without hostile engagement) do not qualify.

  • Because this market specifically asks about the U.S. military and the CIA, kinetic actions conducted solely by U.S. federal law enforcement agencies (such as the DEA, FBI, or DHS) without direct U.S. military or CIA combat involvement do not count.

• Verification: The market will resolve based on official statements from the U.S. government, the Brazilian government, or consensus reporting from major, highly reliable international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, Bloomberg).

If no confirmed kinetic action occurs by the deadline, the market resolves to NO.

Background

While the U.S. and Brazil have historically maintained strong bilateral security and trade ties, recent geopolitical developments in South America have heightened regional anxieties. Following the January 2026 U.S. military intervention in Venezuela (Operation Absolute Resolve) that captured Nicolás Maduro, Washington has adopted a more assertive stance toward security in the Western Hemisphere.

In late May 2026, the U.S. designated Brazil's two largest criminal syndicates—Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV)—as Specially Designated Global Terrorists, with formal Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) status. This move, combined with a June 2026 U.S. Section 301 trade investigation and proposed 25% tariffs against Brazil, has fueled diplomatic pushback from Brasília over fears of potential U.S. intervention, overreach, or targeted strikes against cartel leadership on Brazilian soil.