Will Trump be elected President in 2024 / Will Trump serve time?

Question

Live updating visualization of conditional odds:

(https://manifoldcorrelation.streamlit.app/?type=multi&slug=will-trump-be-elected-president-in&x=Trump+Wins+Election&y=Trump+Serves+Time&swap=false&order=0&embedded=true)How correlated are these events? Let's find out.

What counts?

Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.

Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.

Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.

It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.

Winning the election is defined by reliable media sources reporting.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Trump wins the 2024 Election and never serves time before death, followed by Trump wins the 2024 Election and serves time before death and Trump does not win the 2024 Election and serves time before death are most likely. See the market for live updates (52 traders, as of Jan 20, 2026).