I understand the extraordinary performance of Gukesh, but I think that Ding Liren has more than a 17% chance to win, I’d say a 30% chance would be more accurate.

@MauroDelloStorto I put up a limit order at 80% for Gukesh if you're interested.

@MauroDelloStorto Ding has won precisely one game against 2700+ level opposition all year, played abysmal chess, confessed to mental struggles and is rated 60 points worse than Gukesh. 17% is too generous to him.

@dlin007 Do you know what Ding's performance rating has been for the past year? I assume it's well under 2700.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 cursory chatgpt analysis...did a sanity check for the olympiad and it looks basically correct. I guess the 20% chance is optimists hoping he's turned a corner or undergone some intervention but realistically speaking he's going to get spanked. best case scenario is he'll do just well enough to not embarrass himself but still lose in normal fashion. There's almost <5% chance that he wins 2 games in the match which will be necessary to win

Who do you think will win?