This market refers to this event: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024. Resolves YES if Ding Liren wins the event and NO otherwise. If he does not participate, the market resolves NO. If the tournament is delayed past 2024 or if it is canceled, resolves 50%.
1,000
3.00Curious as to why this is so low; Ding's rating is only about 50 elo lower than Gukesh's, giving a base rate win% for ~57-60% Gukesh.
https://ratings.fide.com/profile/8603677
https://ratings.fide.com/profile/46616543
elo win prob. calculator: https://www.318chess.com/elo.html
@JoeBoyle Even if an individual game can go either way, in 14 games, the stronger player is very likely to do better.
@JoeBoyle Ding has also been in remarkably poor form recently AFAIK. There may be reason to think he's currently underperforming his elo.