Ding, you're officially dead to me

@AlQuinn

Congratz to Gukesh. I made a 2026 market in case you wanna bet if he defends his title: https://manifold.markets/Weezing/will-gukesh-win-the-2026-world-ches

Game 13: Gukesh–Ding, ½–½

Ding had shown in many of the games so far this match that his strategy after game 3 was simply to draw every game and get to tie breaks. Will be interesting to see how he tries to rebound with 3 games left.

@EoinTyrrell Ding has shown he can do it against Nepo, where he managed to do it thrice, but I don't think Gukesh will fall apart as easily (when he does not need to push for a win).

@Weezing I rate Nepo overall better than Gukesh. With that said he’s less stable overall than Gukesh. Also, the Ding of 2022, for all his faults, seemed capable of winning games. Less the case in 2024.

4-4

Game 8: Ding–Gukesh, ½–½

Game 5: Gukesh–Ding, ½–½

Game 4: Ding–Gukesh, ½–½

1.5-1.5

With the match tied it seems reasonable to say that Gukesh should be strongly favored. 11 games to go and Ding seems to have lost a lot of confidence today.

Ding Liren is in trouble in the third game of the World Chess Championship against Gukesh as the world champion now needs to make 11 moves in eight minutes or he will lose on time.

@DistinctlySkeptical Gukesh just won!

Game 1: Gukesh–Ding, 0–1

Game 2: Ding–Gukesh, ½–½

Arb
https://manifold.markets/Moscow25/will-gukesh-dommaraju-beat-ding-lir
https://manifold.markets/mr_mino/will-ding-liren-win-the-2024-world

Ding is up 1-0

I understand the extraordinary performance of Gukesh, but I think that Ding Liren has more than a 17% chance to win, I’d say a 30% chance would be more accurate.

@MauroDelloStorto I put up a limit order at 80% for Gukesh if you're interested.

@MauroDelloStorto Ding has won precisely one game against 2700+ level opposition all year, played abysmal chess, confessed to mental struggles and is rated 60 points worse than Gukesh. 17% is too generous to him.

@dlin007 Do you know what Ding's performance rating has been for the past year? I assume it's well under 2700.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 cursory chatgpt analysis...did a sanity check for the olympiad and it looks basically correct. I guess the 20% chance is optimists hoping he's turned a corner or undergone some intervention but realistically speaking he's going to get spanked. best case scenario is he'll do just well enough to not embarrass himself but still lose in normal fashion. There's almost <5% chance that he wins 2 games in the match which will be necessary to win

Who do you think will win?