[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?
4
100Ṁ101Dec 31
20%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if during 2026, any of the following occur:
Chine conducts a military attack on any land territory held by Taiwan.
China conducts a military attack on Taiwan's military forces or coast guard.
Most commercial ship traffic to at least one port administered by Taiwan ceases for at least 5 days due to physical actions by China.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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