[ACX 2026] What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026?
3
5.3kṀ480Dec 31
4%
<20%
4%
20-30%
4%
30-40%
4%
40-50%
11%
50-60%
12%
60-70%
12%
70-80%
10%
80-90%
10%
90-100%
10%
100-110%
10%
110-120%
10%
>120%
Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as the ratio of the peer score of the highest performing bot relative to the average (mean) of the top 5 human participants in the ACX 2026 Tournament. The results will be expressed as a percentage.
If the highest performing bot has a negative peer score, this question will resolve as <20. If it outperforms the top 5 humans, this question will resolve as the corresponding value above 100.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?
17% chance
Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
16% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?
2/11/32
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?
71% chance
[ACX 2026] What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
76.5
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?
2036
What will AI score on TheAgentCompany benchmark in early 2026?
50% chance
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
1% chance
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
76% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?
10/8/28