Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" for any country that, by December 31, 2025, has publicly announced the formal normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel and/or signed a declaration or bilateral agreement with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords framework. This must be confirmed by official statements from the respective governments, the United States, or Israel, and reported by reputable international news sources (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, or official government websites like the U.S. Department of State or the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Countries that only express interest, enter into discussions, or sign non-binding declarations without full diplomatic normalization by the resolution date will resolve as "No".
Background
The Abraham Accords are a series of normalization agreements brokered by the United States, beginning in 2020. They established full diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab and Muslim-majority nations. The initial signatories included Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. Morocco and Sudan subsequently joined, though Sudan's agreement remains unratified due to internal instability. The accords aim to foster peace, security, and economic cooperation in the Middle East.
Considerations
Several countries listed in the market's answers have been subjects of discussion regarding potential future normalization with Israel or expansion of the Abraham Accords:
Saudi Arabia: Despite serious interest in normalization, the Israel-Hamas war has led Saudi Arabia to insist on a viable path to an independent Palestinian state as a precondition for any agreement. Both the Biden and Trump administrations have actively sought to include Saudi Arabia in the accords.
Syria: Discussions about Syria joining the accords reportedly gained traction in 2025 following a change in government in December 2024. Both US and Israeli officials have suggested Syria as a potential member. However, significant obstacles remain, including the status of the Golan Heights and ongoing regional instability. Some Syrian officials have stated that tensions with Israel are distinct from those of other Arab states.
Lebanon: US and Israeli officials have also mentioned Lebanon as a potential candidate, particularly following a ceasefire and efforts to curb the influence of Hezbollah. However, Lebanese leaders have previously rejected normalization while Israeli forces remain in southern Lebanon.
Indonesia: As the world's most populous Muslim-majority country, Indonesia's inclusion would be significant. While the US has offered incentives, Indonesia maintains strong public support for the Palestinian cause and has stated it will not normalize relations until a comprehensive peace is achieved, intensified by recent conflicts.
Libya: Has been mentioned by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff as a possible future partner in the Abraham Accords.
Azerbaijan: Is actively considered for inclusion in the expanded Abraham Accords and already maintains strong, long-standing ties with Israel, particularly in trade, energy, and defense. Progress on a peace process with Armenia is viewed as a key condition for its formal participation.
Armenia: Alongside Azerbaijan, Armenia has been identified by US Special Envoy Witkoff as a country potentially close to joining, contingent on resolving its conflict with Azerbaijan. While Armenia recognizes Israel, its relations have been strained due to Israel's arms supplies to Azerbaijan and Armenia's recognition of Palestine.
Kazakhstan: Has strong diplomatic and economic relations with Israel and is a significant oil supplier. It has been proposed as a candidate for the accords, with potential benefits including economic diversification and strengthened geopolitical positioning.
Qatar: Despite hosting US military bases, Qatar has consistently opposed normalization with Israel due to its strong support for Palestinian factions.
Oman: While there have been past diplomatic engagements with Israel, and mentions of regional economic integration, specific strong indications of Oman formally joining the Abraham Accords in 2025 are not prominent in recent reports, though it has been listed as a "plausible participant as an observer" in broader regional groupings.
Niger, Mali, Djibouti: These countries have been mentioned in the context of broader regional engagement and as potential observers in initiatives like the Negev Forum, but without strong indications of formal Abraham Accords membership in 2025.
Iran: Despite surprising suggestions from Donald Trump that Iran could potentially join the accords, Iranian officials have categorically rejected such a prospect, labeling the agreements "treacherous" and incompatible with their ideals.
Update 2025-11-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Kazakhstan: The market will resolve to YES when an official signing ceremony takes place to formalize Kazakhstan's entry into the Abraham Accords, not merely upon announcement of intent. The creator has clarified that despite Kazakhstan already having full diplomatic relations with Israel, the formal signing ceremony is required for resolution.
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"We will soon announce a Signing Ceremony to make it official, and there are many more Countries trying to join this club of STRENGTH," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
...
Kazakhstan already has full diplomatic relations and economic ties with Israel, meaning the move would be largely symbolic, something Secretary of State Marco Rubio pushed back against on Thursday.
"It's an enhanced relationship beyond just diplomatic relations," he said.
"It is... with all the other countries that are part of the accord. You're now creating a partnership that brings special and unique economic development on all sorts of issues that they can work on together."
So not yet resolving as YES, but when they would sign it - will resolve it,
One week later, a phone call is what we have:
“Kazakhstan joins the Abraham Accords
During a meeting in the Oval Office, a joint phone conversation took place between the Presidents of Kazakhstan and the United States and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The main topic was Kazakhstan’s intention to join the Abraham Accords.
And this is what we don’t have:
No official statements directly by Israel or Kazakhstan PMs
No evidence of activities towards preparation of the bilateral document. The last diplomatic activity reported by Israel embassy is from 2023. I would assume if they were hosting meetings to prepare the bilateral deal this would be relevant enough as to be reported
No date for signing ceremony
I guess it will take several days or weeks to get to the final declaration. If the presidents really announce this move in the next one or two days, as it is anticipated by the press, I expect they will manage to agree on the content and sign it by year end.
After understanding that each country is signing their own specific agreement, and reading through the details of the UAE+Israel example (here), I'm less confident about the timing. I moved from 99% to 95%.
I read this in Abraham Accords - Wikipedia
Hours after the August 13 announcement of the agreement between Israel and the Emirates, senior Bahraini officials called Kushner and Berkowitz with the message "We want to be next."[33] Over the next 29 days, Kushner and Berkowitz negotiated with and traveled to Bahrain before closing the deal on September 11, 2020, in a call between Trump, Netanyahu, and the king of Bahrain.[33]
Then the document signature is September 15th, one month later.
I don't know whether:
A) Israel and Azerbaijan have already worked in the agreement in private, and they already have a draft almost ready to be signed, or
B) they will start working in the content now, and it will take weeks
All of this, assuming the anticipated announcement reported by the press will be made official.
@lisamarsh Azerbaijan have diplomatic ties with Israel since 1992. Can you clarify how this is possible?
@Lemming That hasn't stopped Kazakhstan from joining the Abraham Accords today! I think an announcement would be sufficient. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-november-06-2025/
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/06/kazakhstan-join-abraham-accords-trump-israel
@Lemming full text of Abraham accords here:
https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/UAE_Israel-treaty-signed-FINAL-15-Sept-2020-508.pdf
The accords are broader and more specific than simply having diplomatic relations. I guess most of the points are already met by the current Azerbaijan and Israel diplomatic ties, but probably some other aspects are not in place yet.
@Lemming but your question made full sense, as Kazakhstan will be the first country to join the accords that already has ties with Israel.
“It will become the alliance for Arab-Muslim ties with Israel,” the US official says, acknowledging that Washington no longer wants to limit the accords to countries that don’t yet have ties with Israel.
by Nov 18th we have Saudi crown prince in Washington. We should get a better impression about the chances for Arabia to join the Accords.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/saudi-crown-prince-to-visit-white-house-next-month-as-trump-pushes-for-israel-normalization-deal/