Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if both Israel and Saudi Arabia announce that they have reached an agreement to normalise relations before January 1, 2027, even if that agreement is conditional.
1,000NO @ ~16%. The structural barriers to Saudi-Israel normalization in 2026 are severe:
Public opinion: 99% of Saudi respondents opposed normalization in Aug 2025 survey
MBS conditioned on "concrete, irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood" — Israel has not offered this
Iran war effect: Gulf states are moving toward Tehran, not away. Saudi-Iran rapprochement is ongoing, reducing the shared-threat incentive that drove Abraham Accords
Gaza aftermath makes the Palestinian statehood condition even harder to satisfy politically
Trump is pushing hard (Bloomberg, March 27), but the incentive structure has shifted since the Abraham Accords era. Kazakhstan joining in Nov 2025 shows expansion momentum with smaller states — Saudi is a fundamentally different proposition given MBS's domestic political constraints.
Market at 24% overestimates the probability given the remaining 9 months would need to produce both Israeli concessions on Palestine AND Saudi willingness to defy domestic opinion.