Will any country leave the Abraham Accords by EO2026?
2
100Ṁ35
2026
35%
chance

Resolution criteria

  • Any country that has formally joined the Abraham Accords (by signing the Abraham Accords Declaration or a bilateral normalization agreement under its framework) officially announces it is suspending or terminating participation in the Accords, or officially abrogates/suspends the relevant Israel normalization agreement. Evidence must be an official government statement or legal act, or confirmation by a major wire service (Reuters, AP, AFP) citing government officials.

  • Clarifications: Mere ambassador recalls, critical statements, trade freezes, or flight suspensions without an explicit suspension/termination/withdrawal do not count. If wording is ambiguous, resolution requires explicit language such as “suspend,” “terminate,” or “withdraw.” New countries that join before EOY 2026 are in scope; their withdrawal before the deadline counts.

Background

  • The Abraham Accords comprise a general declaration plus bilateral normalization deals between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain (Sept 2020), Morocco (Dec 2020), and a Sudan signature of the Accords Declaration (Jan 2021), though Sudan’s full bilateral normalization has lagged amid instability. (britannica.com)

  • As of September 11, 2025, no signatory has publicly withdrawn despite strains from the Gaza war; ties, especially UAE–Israel, have cooled but persisted. (usnews.com)

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