Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the total number of individuals arrested in Israel on charges of espionage for Iran between October 7, 2023, and December 31, 2025. The outcome will be determined by official statements from Israeli authorities, including the Shin Bet and Israel Police, as reported by reputable news outlets. The market will resolve to the answer corresponding to the total number of arrests within the specified period.

Background

Israeli authorities have reported a significant increase in espionage activities linked to Iran in recent years. In 2024, the Shin Bet disclosed a 400% rise in arrests related to Iranian spy plots compared to the previous year, with 13 major espionage cases uncovered and 27 Israelis indicted. (iranintl.com)

Notable incidents include:

• October 2024: Seven Israeli citizens were arrested for allegedly spying for Iran, accused of photographing and collecting information on military bases and air defense systems. (timesofisrael.com)

• December 2024: Nearly 30 individuals, mostly Jewish citizens, were arrested on allegations of espionage for Iran, involving intelligence gathering on military defenses and planning sabotage within Israel. (abc.net.au)

• January 2025: Two IDF reservists, including one from an Iron Dome unit, were arrested on suspicion of spying for Iran, marking a significant escalation in Iran's espionage efforts targeting sensitive military installations. (israelhayom.com)

These incidents highlight Iran's intensified efforts to recruit individuals within Israel for intelligence gathering and potential sabotage activities.

Considerations

• Verification of Arrests: The market's resolution depends on the availability and accuracy of official reports from Israeli authorities. Delays or lack of public disclosure may affect the timely resolution of the market.

• Definition of Espionage: For the purposes of this market, "espionage" refers to activities involving the collection, transmission, or handling of information intended to benefit a foreign entity, specifically Iran, to the detriment of Israel's national security.

• Potential Underreporting: Some espionage cases may not be publicly disclosed due to national security concerns, which could impact the total count of arrests available through public sources.

• Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that a specific Hebrew Wikipedia page about the recruitment of Israelis by Iran will be used as a source for tracking the number of arrests, in addition to the sources already listed in the description.