Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports confirm any covert Israeli sabotage activities inside Iran occurring after the June 2025 ceasefire. Such activities include, but are not limited to, clandestine operations, cyberattacks, or other forms of sabotage attributed to Israeli forces or intelligence agencies, or its covert assets inside Iran. The resolution will be based on reports from reputable news organizations or official statements from involved parties.

Reputable news organisations:

AP

Reuters

BBC

WSJ

NYT

Al Jazeera

Haaretz

The above list of media sources is not exhaustive and its for reference purposes only

Background

In June 2025, Israel conducted a series of covert operations within Iran, including the establishment of a drone base near Tehran and the execution of sabotage missions targeting Iranian military infrastructure. These operations were part of a broader strategy to disrupt Iran's nuclear and missile programs. (en.wikipedia.org)

Following the ceasefire, Iranian authorities have reported arresting individuals accused of collaborating with Israel, alleging involvement in espionage and sabotage activities. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

Given the clandestine nature of such operations, definitive confirmation may be challenging. Traders should rely on multiple credible sources when assessing reports of covert activities. Additionally, the geopolitical landscape in the region is dynamic, and new developments could influence the occurrence and reporting of such activities.