This market resolves YES if credible reports from international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, UN, or Lebanese/Israeli health ministries) document 100 or more deaths in a single 7-day period from renewed Israel-Hezbollah fighting before January 1, 2026.

Context: A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect on November 27, 2024. Since then, there have been numerous violations and tensions, but large-scale fighting has not resumed. As of late November 2025, the ceasefire has largely held for one year, though with ongoing Israeli strikes and reported ceasefire violations.

Resolution: Market resolves YES if any 7-day period before 2026 sees 100+ deaths from renewed hostilities. Deaths must be attributed to active combat/airstrikes between the parties, not isolated incidents. Resolution sources: https://www.reuters.com/world/, https://apnews.com/, https://www.bbc.com/news/world/middle_east, https://www.un.org/