MANIFOLD
Will any real-world household robot benchmark appear by EOY 2027?
8
Ṁ100Ṁ390
2027
82%
chance

Resolves YES if, by Jan 1, 2028:

  • a publicly documented benchmark exists that evaluates physical (non-simulated) household tasks;

  • tasks have explicit success/failure criteria;

  • results are intended for comparison across different robots or systems (not a single-vendor demo).

Resolves NO otherwise.

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