Will I (@Bayesian) see a humanoid robot in person, in 2026?
25
Ṁ1kṀ1.1kDec 31
35%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
must be at least 4 feet tall to count, and be operational (be able to stand up and walk)
note: I have no reason to expect this
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000
People are also trading
Related questions
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?
67% chance
Will 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?
58% chance
Will there be a billion humanoid robots roaming the earth in the 2040s?
16% chance
Will we have a Humanoid comparable to humans by EOY 2027?
5% chance
Will there be a humanoid robot that can move with human-like precision and flexibility before April of 2028?
41% chance
How many humanoid robots will there be at the end of 2032?
99m
Will someone be killed by a humanoid robot by the end of 2027?
26% chance
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?
35% chance
Will it be possible to buy Tesla Optimus humanoid robot before 2030?
45% chance
Will 200K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?
68% chance