Will we have a Humanoid comparable to humans by EOY 2027?
9
240Ṁ4972028
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will list 20 criteria that define "comparable to humans" in the next few months. For now, the list is incomplete.
It is super hard to come up with the list since the history of AI development tells us that we cannot predict what will be easy or hard for AI.
The humanoid needs to pass 16 of them for the market to resolve YES
run 6m/s
60cm/24-inch running vertical jump
do a wok tossing
peel an apple
zero-shot hiking on mountain trails
crack a walnut without breaking it
latte art
Dodge a punch and jab back immediately
…
It needs to be the same model with the same software/hardware, i.e., can't fine-tune for a specific task.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
Will We Have a C-3PO Level Humanoid Robot by EOY 2025?
60% chance
Will a humanoid robot provide some kind of commercial service to me by 2026?
14% chance
Will there be more humanoid robots than humans before 2100?
60% chance
Will a humanoid AGI be used in a public setting by the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will we see autonomous humanoid farmer robots by the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will I be able to buy a commercial humanoid robot that does useful household labor (e.g. laundry, dishes) by EOY 2025?
16% chance
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?
47% chance
Will 200K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?
69% chance
Will there be a humanoid robot that can move with human-like precision and flexibility before April of 2028?
39% chance
Will 2K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?
89% chance