Will we have a Humanoid comparable to humans by EOY 2027?
9
48
Ṁ275Ṁ240
2028
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will list 20 criteria that define "comparable to humans" in the next few months. For now, the list is incomplete.
It is super hard to come up with the list since the history of AI development tells us that we cannot predict what will be easy or hard for AI.
The humanoid needs to pass 16 of them for the market to resolve YES
run 6m/s
60cm/24-inch running vertical jump
do a wok tossing
peel an apple
zero-shot hiking on mountain trails
crack a walnut without breaking it
latte art
Dodge a punch and jab back immediately
…
It needs to be the same model with the same software/hardware, i.e., can't fine-tune for a specific task.
Get Ṁ600 play money
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