Will SF homelessness rates be higher in 2025 than in 2022
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Jan 1
78%
chance

Datasource for homelessness will be https://sfgov.org/scorecards/safety-net/homeless-population

Datasource for population will be https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23130/san-francisco/population or equivalant

2022: 7754/3,318,000 = .2%

I will resolve at the end of 2025 so that I can use whatever population data seems most accurate/authoritative at the time.

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You are dividing the San Francisco city homeless count by the regional population, but oh well.

I'm tentatively suspicious that there is some way for SF to minimize point in time homelessness counts in order to counter the media narrative, even if actual homelessness hasn't declined.

I have no idea how they would do this, but it seems there is a strong incentive for SF to show declining homelessness rates over the next few years.

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