Will SF homelessness rates be higher in 2030 than in 2022

Question

Datasource for homelessness will be https://sfgov.org/scorecards/safety-net/homeless-population

Datasource for population will be https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23130/san-francisco/population or equivalant

2022: 7754/3,318,000 = .2%

I will resolve at the end of 2030 so that I can use whatever population data seems most accurate/authoritative at the time.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 46% chance (17 traders, as of Jan 6, 2026).