This market is aimed as a proxy for "Will SF get better?" - I'm interested in brainstorming, or trading on any other proxies for the same q, please reach out to me here or on Twitter if you have any ideas.

Context:

• In Q4 2019, the retail vacancy rate in SF was 3.5% as reported by Cushman & Wakefield. (Source)

  • It hovered in the 3% range in 2019.

• In Q4 2024, the retail vacancy rate in SF was 7.7% (Source)
  

Cushing & Wakefield have published such reports about SF retail & commercial vacancy rates over the past year, and thus this market shall resolve:

• YES if Cushing & Wakefield report the SF-wide retail vacancy rate at under 4.5% for Q1 2026.

• NO if they report a SF-wide retail vacancy rate, but report it at or above 4.5%

• N/A if Cushing & Wakefield ceases publishing such reports. I think it's unlikely that they stop publishing reports for SF, as they have for at least the last 5 years.