Will a meteor hit Earth and be mentioned in the news by March 31, 2024?
15
79
400
resolved Mar 31
Resolved
NO

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by March 31, 2024, there is a documented instance of a meteor striking Earth that is reported in at least one of the following global news aggregation sources:

  • Google News API

  • News API

  • GDELT Project

These sources are chosen for their wide reach and aggregation of numerous news outlets globally.

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Using the news API (if you get an API key) you can execute these commands (on Linux, Mac, or WSL on windows)

 curl https://newsapi.org/v2/everything -G \                       
-d q=Meteorite \     
-d from=2024-03-01 \     
-d sortBy=popularity \     
-d apiKey=[REDACTED] > ~/manifold-resolve.json

this will produce the manifold-resolve.json

The next command will then filter the titles and only list the ones containing "meteor"

cat manifold-resolve.json |jq '.articles | .[].title' | grep meteor

and the list is:
```shell

1. "Stardust particle locked in meteorite holds secrets of a star's explosive death"
2. "Photoshop this cute little meteorite [Photoshop]"
3. "In Sweden, between the meteor rock and the legal hard place"
4. "Made from a meteorite, this ghastly $1.1 million watch pays homage to ‘Predator,’ the movie starring Arnold Schwarzenegger."
5. "A single meteorite smashed into Mars and created 2 billion craters"
6. "Huge crater in India hints at major meteorite impact 4000 years ago"

For this reason, I will resolve this market to NO

@ViorelPETCUVorL Although this does not seem to change the results (at least to the extent I could quickly find), I think it would be sensible to include non-English sources as well, becausethe question is not limitedto English sources. This would include terms like "meteorit" (multiple European languages), "метеорит" (russian) or 陨石 (Chinese from Google translate, can't verify whether there are additional synonyms)....

@MartinModrak If you want to research, I will gladly do the adjustment. But I did not specify this when the marked was opened. So I will stick to what was able to find in english.

@ViorelPETCUVorL Part of the motivation for writing that comment was to make you aware that since you did not specify it, focusing just on English seems wrong to me.... It's OK to just accept English-language news, but then this should be mentioned in the question. The APIs you mention include non-English content, so without further qualifications it seems safe to assume non-English reports count.

@MartinModrak valid point, but if there would have been a news worthy meteor hit, it would have been reported in English too. So I still think we should stick to what is practical in resolving this market.