Background: I have maintained a prediction calendar since 2010 and will be creating markets of the (least ridiculous) predictions in there. Most of these will not be my own predictions. I will not be betting in any of the markets I create.

This prediction is based on a 2019 Forbes article written by Scott Lenet:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottlenet/2019/12/15/a-dozen-innovation-predictions-for-the-coming-decade/?sh=38ee47ac6cab

"On the other hand, religion is an overlooked, gargantuan market whose fragmented entrants have made limited progress in the digital transformations that have already modernized so many other industries. VCs have typically avoided this sector, too; as many investors and entrepreneurs are themselves not religious. Yet religion offers ardent end-consumers, extraordinary insulation from regulatory challenges, and limited venture-funded competition. We will see multiple billion dollar religion startups by the middle of the decade."

Will resolve YES if two or more startups can reasonably be considered to be in the religious sector and are valued at at least a billion dollars.

I realise resolving this depends on my subjectivity: I cannot scope startup ideas that have not yet been thought of. However, I am setting up this market in good faith (ha!) and hope to be trusted accordingly. Ideas could include:

• Innovations in bringing believers and clergy together

• Innovations in providing facilities to clergy

• Automation or digitisation of religious services

• Providing new media for religious experience

• Offering a new religion

But of course, there are many more options.

• Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution date set to July.

  • Highest funding observed: Hallow.