Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will there be a new religious movement in the USA that achieves 10,000+ followers before 2036?
2
Ṁ350Ṁ21
2035
53%
chance

Some features that that must be achieved for it to count:

  1. The movement must have clearly defined doctrines or membership criteria. In other words, you can’t just 2 vaguely similar movements with 5,000 US followers and claim that’s equivalent to 10,000 followers. The movement must have clear criteria for membership that 10,000 people meet.

  2. The number of people can be inferred, it does not have to be empirically demonstrated if it is otherwise clear

  3. The movement does not need to be founded after the creation date of this market, it only needs to reach 10,000 US followers before the cutoff date.

  4. The movement can’t be a part of any existing religion. This can include formal affiliation with existing churches but also anything that is non-denominational but too similiar to existing traditions to count. For example, I would reject any Christian movement that adheres to the nicene creed from consideration unless it also ties in multiple teachings that are clearly inconsistent with Christianity. Hypothetically, I would count Mormonism but not count Kenneth Copeland ministries if they had reached 10,000 followers within the market’s timespan.

  5. In order to count as a religious movement, it must be centered around God or Gods.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!