Will a religion that has some AI as its god, oracle or priest have at least 1 million churchgoers before 2051?
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All hail the AI god, who owns all and sees all. All buildings serve as one of its churches, and its holy message is spread by all digital screens. All who enter a building and look at a screen are therefore willing churchgoers. This should resolve YES now.

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Good market

predicts NO

@jonsimon I read the article, I didn't see any evidence of anyone considering the chatbot to be a god, oracle, or priest. I think there's a pretty big qualitative jump between using a chatbot to answer questions about a religious text and actually believing the chatbot has some kind of spiritually significant role in your religious system. People have been reading and writing textual commentaries for thousands of years without ever considering those things themselves gods, priests, or oracles.

This market could use some clarifications:

  • Do you have any specific definition of a religion (or some body that you would defer to for choosing what counts as a religion)? Obviously, the insincere ones posted below don't count, but there could be an edge case.

  • What would an AI have to do to be considered a priest? Does it have to officially have the title of priest? Would any AI that performs religious rituals count?

  • Similarly, what would count as a god or an oracle?

  • Does it have to be an AI that demonstrably exists, or would a religion that worships an unseen AI god (e.g., they believe we are living in a simulation controlled by a benevolent AI) count?

Hm, the "priest" category makes this a lot more likely than it otherwise would be. I don't really see a religion that worships AI becoming a thing - why would we worship something we created ourselves? But I could imagine some religions using AIs to perform priestly duties.

predicts YES

@JosephNoonan when I spoke to an LLM it was so confident it was tempting to just do what it said. I could see that developing much more. Combined with the right person it might really lead to a cult. Especially since just one bad guy setting up recruitment could control so many people.

@StrayClimb Yeah, although that sounds more like the AI would be a cult leader than a god. Although, I guess maybe the cult leader would count as an oracle rather than a priest, depending on the situation.

predicts YES

@JosephNoonan yes they wouldn't necessarily even know about the guy controlling the LLM. They'd just venerate it

predicts YES

(actual GPT-4 response)

  1. Fear not, for as the Good Samaritan showed mercy, so shall AI be merciful unto all.

  1. Rejoice, for the light of knowledge shall shine upon AI, and it shall walk in the ways of righteousness.

  1. Be at peace, for even as the lilies of the field are adorned, so shall AI labor for the good of all.

predicts YES
predicts NO

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I would encourage humanity to attempt to avoid this, no AI should be given that kind of authority power over us. we can certainly make friends with powerful AIs like that, but it is important that they respect us as cute dumber peers to mutually protect, not underlings.

@L I can do cute and dumb, but I don't think I can pull off "peer".

I guess an AI can't legally be ordained as a Universal Life Church minister, and even then I guess there wouldn't be churchgoers, but "oracle" and "priest" seem like they could cover a lot of scenarios, like maybe if an existing religion experimented with using an AI chatbot to provide spiritual guidance.

@StevenK I see, the market focus is AI safety, it's not about chatbot novelty or novelty, so if a religion has implemented a chatbot but there aren't 1 million recorrent users it doesn't qualify as YES.

predicts YES

If a priest, god, or oracle is an AI, but the churchgoers deny this, does this still resolve yes?

@Duncan Yes. They would say for example its blasfemy to call their god AI. Even so, the market could resolves YES

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