Will Claude 3.5 Opus have a higher Chat Arena Elo than GPT-5?
26
100Ṁ10202026
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Note that if OpenAI ends of changing their naming scheme to something else, I will count it if the model appears to be the one mentioned in this blog post: https://openai.com/index/openai-board-forms-safety-and-security-committee/
Additionally, it will only be resolved yes if 3.5 Opus sustains its position for the entire first month after both models are listed in the leaderboards, so if it passes GPT-5 temporarily due to noise it will not count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will GPT-4.5 rank above Grok 3 on Chatbot Arena?
75% chance
What will Claude 3.5 Opus's reported 0-shot performance on GPQA Diamond be upon release?
Will Claude 3.5 Opus beat OpenAI's best released model on the arena.lmsys.org leaderboard?
10% chance
What will be the *first* ELO Rating of Claude 3.5 Opus in the LMSYS Arena?
What will be GPT-5's score on LMSYS Chatbot Arena?
Will more users subscribe to Claude Pro than ChatGPT Plus at EOY 2024?
6% chance
Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?
13% chance
Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be able to draw me in tic-tac-toe while playing as O at least 1/3 of the time?
32% chance
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?
39% chance