Will a new form of clean energy surpass solar in efficiency by 2030?
10
190Ṁ5692030
15%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Efficiency will be measured by price per kwh. If price varies by location, I will use US prices.
I will interpret "new" to mean new technology. I'll be generous in what counts. Windmills won't count, but I would count bladeless wind turbines. I'll define clean by "does not release greenhouse gases." So yes, modular nuclear reactors are on the table.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will a new renewable energy technology emerge by 2030 that surpasses the efficiency of current solar or wind?
20% chance
Will renewable energy be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?
82% chance
US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030?
64% chance
[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?
80% chance
US solar capacity triples over 2025-2035?
68% chance
Will solar become the primary source of electricity in the US before 2040?
75% chance
What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?
Will there be more than 1GW of in-space solar power generation by 2030?
30% chance
Will over 25% of the United States' energy be produced from renewable sources by the end of 2030?
63% chance
Will over 20% of the United States' energy be produced from renewable sources by the end of 2030?
54% chance