This market resolves to YES if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is signed by both belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran achieves the same.

​This market resolves to NO if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran is signed by the required belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine achieves the same.

​1. Signatory & Conflict Scope

​Russia–Ukraine: Must be signed by the executive leadership or authorized plenipotentiaries of both Russia and Ukraine.

​Iran Conflict: Must be signed by the executive leadership or authorized plenipotentiaries of Iran AND either (a) the United States, (b) Israel, or (c) both. Signing with one state satisfies the condition provided all hostilities between Iran and that signatory state formally terminate under the treaty terms.

​2. Qualifying Peace Agreement & Timeline

​A valid agreement must be a binding, formal bilateral or multilateral treaty intended to permanently terminate armed conflict.

​Excluded: Temporary ceasefires, armistices, operational protocols, safe-passage agreements, or non-binding memorandums of understanding (e.g., the June 17, 2026 Islamabad Memorandum).

​Clock Start: The 180-day holding requirement begins at 00:00 UTC on the calendar day immediately following the treaty’s official Entry into Force (or official signing date if the text dictates immediate legal effect).

​3. Breach Criteria (Clock Reset to Day 0)

​The 180-day clock immediately resets to Day 0 if, prior to 23:59 UTC on Day 180, any of the following objective metrics are met:

​Combat Fatalities:

​Exceeding 15 total combat-related fatalities within any rolling 7-calendar-day window, OR

​Exceeding 10 combat-related fatalities in a single 24-hour incident.

(Applies to direct actions by signatory militaries, internal security forces, or state-backed/affiliated proxy groups. Unintentional industrial accidents or historic landmine detonations are excluded).

​Kinetic Operations:

​A total of 5 or more distinct military strikes (missile, air, artillery, or long-range drone strikes) launched by or against the territory, occupied territories, sovereign military forces, or flagged naval vessels of a signatory state within any rolling 48-hour window.

​Formal Repudiation:

​Official notification or public statement by a head of state, foreign minister, or designated plenipotentiary of any signatory party explicitly revoking, rescinding, or declaring the treaty void.

​4. Edge Cases & Expiration

​Unilateral Victory / State Collapse: If one conflict ends entirely via military victory, regime collapse, or complete unconditional surrender without a bilateral treaty, the other conflict wins the market upon the valid signing and successful 180-day survival of its peace treaty.

​Simultaneous Completion: If both treaties reach Day 180 on the exact same calendar day (UTC), the market resolves based on which treaty entered into force first (down to the exact UTC timestamp).

​Expiration (December 31, 2030): If neither conflict has achieved a signed peace treaty that successfully holds for 180 consecutive days prior to December 31, 2030, at 23:59 UTC, or if both end without treaties ever being signed, this market resolves 50/50.

​5. Source of Truth & Data Audit Period

​Resolution will rely on consensus reporting from Reuters, Associated Press, and Agence France-Presse, alongside verified conflict datasets from ACLED.

​Resolution Buffer: Final resolution will be held for 45 calendar days after Day 180 to allow ACLED and international bodies to conduct post-event fatality audits and verify retroactive violation claims.