h/t @Aella

Resolves YES if, at any point before Dec 31, 2026, all of the following occur:

• Someone and I each provide a probability estimate regarding our intent to pursue a long-term maximally serious relationship

• Both estimates are given within a ~2 week window of each other

• The mean of the two estimates is ≥40%

Estimates can be verbal or written but must be deliberate (not offhand). Only needs to occur once; reversions or breakups afterward don't change the resolution. If a borderline case arises, I'll resolve in good faith and explain my reasoning in the comments.

Otherwise resolves NO at close.

I may bet in this market. Self-resolved.