h/t @Aella
Resolves YES if, at any point before Dec 31, 2026, all of the following occur:
Someone and I each provide a probability estimate regarding our intent to pursue a long-term maximally serious relationship
Both estimates are given within a ~2 week window of each other
The mean of the two estimates is ≥40%
Estimates can be verbal or written but must be deliberate (not offhand). Only needs to occur once; reversions or breakups afterward don't change the resolution. If a borderline case arises, I'll resolve in good faith and explain my reasoning in the comments.
Otherwise resolves NO at close.
I may bet in this market. Self-resolved.
1,000People are also trading
Do you want to be in a long-term relationship right now?
How confident are you / do you anticipate your answer to 1 changing over the course of the year?
If yes to 1, what characteristics do you look for in a partner? I'm curious how much they resemble the characteristics of the people who you are surrounding yourself with
@Conflux 1. As a general expression of preference (as compared to the lack there of / other types of relationships), yes
2. Relatively confident, however I am currently not putting in any explicit (or any) effort towards that end
@Conflux i don’t have a great quantitative nor qualitative answer to this question in a way that is
helpful / informative to you in betting in this market, might be happy to chat more irl if you want more takes