There is a specific moment in the past year that I consider to be the happiest moment of my life. Resolves YES iff sometime in the next 5 years I have another moment that I subjectively deem to be at least comparable to it.

FTR I claim the probability to be rather low. I am allowed to bet, however, I value having another such moment more than any quantity of mana so there is no incentive for me to manipulate the outcome.