Will I (co)write an AI safety research paper by the end of 2024?
Basic
6
Ṁ148Dec 31
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See my other questions for context. For this question to resolve YES, I have to be a co-author (or the sole author) of a finished research paper that is directly related to AI safety or AI alignment by the end of 2024. The paper need not be published in a journal for this to resolve, but a complete final version has to be produced.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?
52% chance
Will an "AI Safety Textbook" be available before the end of 2024?
63% chance
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
38% chance
Will greater than one "AI Safety Textbook" be released before the end of 2024?
31% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?
62% chance
Will a published research paper be revealed to have been written by an AI before 2025?
83% chance
Will I still consider improving AI X-Safety my top priority on EOY 2024?
63% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2025?
15% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
72% chance
I make a contribution to AI safety that is endorsed by at least one high profile AI alignment researcher by the end of 2026
59% chance