Which company will first publicly demonstrate a fault-tolerant, commercially useful quantum computer? | Manifold

Which company will first publicly demonstrate a fault-tolerant, commercially useful quantum computer?

3

Ṁ200Ṁ34

2099

13%

Google

13%

IBM

11%

Microsoft

13%

Quantinuum

13%

PsiQuantum

13%

IonQ

13%

Other

13%

Other

This market resolves to the first company that publicly demonstrates a fault-tolerant quantum computer that is widely recognized as commercially useful.

The demonstration must be publicly announced by the company and supported by credible evidence such as technical documentation, peer-reviewed research, or broad recognition from major industry publications.

If another company not listed achieves this milestone first, Other will resolve YES.

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I am surprised and confused by this resolution, particularly coming only one day after the question was posed. Can you post the evidence for "commercially useful" on which you resolved this?

@nonnihil With no further information forthcoming, I think this market was badly misresolved.

@nonnihil Agreed. I think at this point it is fine to ask @mods for their help.

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Which Company or Lab will release a Quantum Computer that can break RSA-2048 first

Will any practical applications of quantum computing be commercially available to retail consumers before end of 2026?

In which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated?

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