Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ8.5k

2034

66%

chance

ALL

As judged by Scott Aaronson https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8310.

If Scott does not publicly express an opinion before the resolution date, I will email him to get his take.

If he cannot or will not answer, and the resolution is unclear, I will do my best to get expert opinions.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Nobody's updating based on Microsoft's Majorana 1?

reposted

https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8525

The Google Willow thing

Yesterday I arrived in Santa Clara for the Q2B (Quantum 2 Business) conference, which starts this morning, and where I'll be speaking Thursday on "Quantum Algorithms in 2024: How Should We Feel?" and also closing the conference via an Ask-Us-Anything session with John Preskill. (If you're at Q2B, reader, come and say hi!) And to…

reposted

https://blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip/

You mean full-fledged programmable quantum computer? Or just quantum supremacy for some narrow application?

Let me end by sticking my neck out. If hardware progress continues at the rate we’ve seen for the past year or two, then I find it hard to understand why we won’t have useful fault-tolerant QCs within the next decade. (And now to retreat my neck a bit: the “if” clause in that sentence is important and non-removable!)

Interesting. I wish I understood the implications of this.