Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade

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2034

67%

chance

ALL

As judged by Scott Aaronson https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8310.

If Scott does not publicly express an opinion before the resolution date, I will email him to get his take.

If he cannot or will not answer, and the resolution is unclear, I will do my best to get expert opinions.

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Quantum Computing

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When will Quantum computing become viable?

2028

will i get a quantum computer in my lifetime?

66% chance

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Will there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?

80% chance

Will a commercially available quantum computer with over 1 million qubits released before 2035?

74% chance

Will a fully error corrected quantum computer capable of running 100 million gates be created before 2030?

14% chance

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

27% chance

Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?

20% chance

Will a quantum computer with at least 1500 qubits be announced before the end of 2030?

91% chance

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Nobody's updating based on Microsoft's Majorana 1?

reposted

https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8525

The Google Willow thing

Yesterday I arrived in Santa Clara for the Q2B (Quantum 2 Business) conference, which starts this morning, and where I'll be speaking Thursday on "Quantum Algorithms in 2024: How Should We Feel?" and also closing the conference via an Ask-Us-Anything session with John Preskill. (If you're at Q2B, reader, come and say hi!) And to…

reposted

https://blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip/

You mean full-fledged programmable quantum computer? Or just quantum supremacy for some narrow application?

Let me end by sticking my neck out. If hardware progress continues at the rate we’ve seen for the past year or two, then I find it hard to understand why we won’t have useful fault-tolerant QCs within the next decade. (And now to retreat my neck a bit: the “if” clause in that sentence is important and non-removable!)

Interesting. I wish I understood the implications of this.