Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2026, NATO initiates or participates in military operations against Iran in support of the United States. Official announcements from NATO or member states, credible news reports, or verifiable military actions will serve as sources for resolution. If no such involvement occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of June 22, 2025, the United States has conducted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, marking a significant escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions. (en.wikipedia.org) NATO has expressed support for U.S. efforts to address perceived threats from Iran but has not engaged in direct military action. (jpost.com) The alliance's involvement in any future conflict would require consensus among member states, each with its own foreign policy considerations.

Considerations

NATO's decision to engage militarily depends on collective agreement among its 31 member countries, which may have differing views on intervention. Additionally, NATO's primary focus has traditionally been on collective defense within the North Atlantic area, and involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts is not guaranteed. The evolving geopolitical landscape, including relations with Russia and China, may also influence NATO's stance on participating in a U.S.-Iran conflict.