Resolves according to Ipsos's 2024 Global Threat Assessment survey, by how high the Global Country Average is for those responding to the question "How real do you feel the threat is of an AI-based defense system becoming a threat to humanity by breaking free of human control?" with either "A very real threat" or "Somewhat a real threat." The 2023 result for this question was 60%.

If the result is below 40%, this will resolve as 40; if above 90%, this will resolve as 90.

I will not bet on this market.