Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States | Manifold

Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States

2

Ṁ100Ṁ12

2030

45%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Will China either significantly de facto or de jure ban open source AI before the United States of America. A de facto ban is decided by what is, by reasonable likelihood causally linked to legislation, a significant lagging of the respective country's open frontier relative to it's prior trend is considered a "ban".

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?

Will China nerf its AI industry before the US does?

Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

China vs US: who will be first to impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold?

Will the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030

Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028?

Will POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?

Related questions

Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?

Will China nerf its AI industry before the US does?

Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

China vs US: who will be first to impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold?

Will the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030

Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028?

Will POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?