Per the CDC, "In 2000, endemic measles was declared "eliminated" from the United States. For measles, elimination is defined as the absence of endemic measles transmission for a period of 12 months or more in the presence of an adequate surveillance system."

A recent NBC article quotes Dr. Jonathan Temte, part of the team who declared endemic measles eliminated in 2000, as saying "I would guess that the likelihood of re-establishment of measles in the United States is greater than 50%."

This question resolves YES if at least one reputable news outlet reports that a chain of transmission for the current measles outbreak has persisted for at least 52 weeks, or explicitly states that measles has become endemic per the CDC's criterion mentioned above. To allow for potential delays in reporting, this question closes in April 2026.

I may trade on this market.