Resolves YES if the following markets both resolve the same way: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? [link preview](https://manifold.markets/embed/Tumbles/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-end-of-2Ny29lyU6Q)

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 84% chance (10 traders, as of Jun 22, 2026).

Will Tumbles and Polymarket resolve the same way regarding "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027?"

MANIFOLD

Will Tumbles and Polymarket resolve the same way regarding "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027?"

Ṁ100Ṁ227

2027

84%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if the following markets both resolve the same way:

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

$35,799,768 has traded on "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" as of June 19, 2026. View real-time odds or trade on The World's Largest Prediction Mark...

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66% is crazy, are people expecting me to troll or are they expecting Polymarket to be weird? Or does it just seem like Polymarket and I have different standards?

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