Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027? (Tumbles Judgement)

Question

Resolves YES if China invades Taiwan before 2028.

I won't bet in this market.

Resolution is left up to Tumbles's judgement. Feel free to ask questions about resolution, but be aware that ultimately resolution will be based on Tumbles's estimation of the spirit of the market.

Generally an invasion involves military mobilization and a very significant undermining of sovereignty by force. As an example, I would count the capture of Maduro as an invasion because he was Venezuela's head of state and it involved overpowering Venezuela's military defenses.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 10% chance (4 traders, as of Jun 30, 2026).