When Tumbles pays his loans off, will his net worth be greater than his poker losses?
40
280Ṁ37kresolved Jun 9
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100%99.0%
Tumbles will not successfully pay off all of his loans (on time) 🪦
0.2%
Yes, his net worth will be greater 👑
0.8%
No, his net poker losses will be greater 💀
Only mana counts, not my $$$ net worth or my $$$ poker losses.
Current poker net losses: Ṁ54,651
Edit 2024/11/29: I must return 1.4 million mana to Manifold when I have enough to do so (there is no due date, I can't be late to repay it). It is not automatically included in the net worth listed on my profile, but I think it should factor into my net worth for the purposes of this market.
Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex! 💸
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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