Will I be able to pay for my kids' college fund through poker?
8
61
220
2060
19%
chance

Resolves No if I never have kids.

Resolves Yes if by the time my kid starts going to college, my lifetime earnings from poker > their college tuition costs AND I pay for their tuition for them so they don't have to take loans.

Update: For ease of resolution and clear criteria, I need to earn 40,000 GBP (adjusted for inflation) per kid from poker for this to resolve yes.

Resolves Yes even if they take an alternative route and don't go to college if the above would have been true.

If I have multiple kids, then I gotta make more money from poker for this to resolve to yes.

So far I've played poker once in a casino (+$60 in a couple hours from a $200 buy-in) and lots with friends and family and a tiny bit online. Was a dealer in a casino for 5 months. Used to be a pro strategy gamer and have lots of friends from that which went on to become full time poker players.

I hope to play lots of high stakes poker for fun on the side in my 30-40s onwards after I've made lots of money from building cool things. (I'm 24 rn)

relevant tweet:

Get Ṁ600 play money
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College tuition varies a lot from place to place. You should clarify what kind of college or determine a tuition value today that gets adjusted for inflation later.

@voodoo oh good point.

I'm from the Uk where it is relatively standardised. For ease of criteria, let's just go with I have to make (adjusted for inflation) 40,000gbp per kid from poker by the time they turn 18.

@voodoo oh good point.

I'm from the Uk where it is relatively standardised. For ease of criteria, let's just go with I have to make (adjusted for inflation) 40,000gbp per kid from poker by the time they turn 18.

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 5% order

come bet against me

opened a Ṁ30,000 YES at 2% order

My biggest concern with this plan is that poker becomes even more like chess than it already is with AI solvers and to make money playing it just becomes too much about memorising. I know it already is a lot fwiw.