The first anime to win the oscar was Spirited Away at the 75th Academy Awards held in 2002.

If another anime wins the award before 2030, this market will resolve to YES.

If after the show hosted in 2029 (assuming there is only one show hosted that year, if there are more then after the final show that year) there has not been a second anime that has won the award, this market will resolve to NO.

Consider the definition of anime to be in use for the purposes of the market to be quite narrow. At the very least the primary animation studio and/or at least one of the production companies have to be based in Japan.

Co-productions with foreign companies (as with e.g. former nominee The Red Turtle) could potentially count for the purpose of this market.